Tuesday 19 June 2012

Is Obama's Reelection Out of His Hands?

Republicans can ? and will ? hammer President Obama endlessly for the real or perceived missteps of his administration, and warn that the economic malaise of the hour could just be the opening bell of prolonged American decline if he wins a second term.

But a scan of Monday morning?s headlines underscores just how much of the broader picture, with very hefty implications for the November vote, is beyond Obama?s control.

Egyptian voters handed power to that country?s Muslim Brotherhood. Greek voters backed the center-right, pro-euro party, but after an initial surge of confidence European and Asian markets retreated on Monday.

And Russian battleships were reportedly tacking toward Syria, a combustible scenario where tens of thousands have already died at the hands of the Assad regime.

Obama, as commander-in-chief and manager of the world?s largest economy outside the European Union, will wear blame for all three crises regardless of their outcome. But his ability to shape any of the results is unclear, and that lies realistically at neither his feet nor the office?s.

Yes, the electoral verdict will be about the economy. But it will also be on Obama?s perceived ability to manage that economy, and image shaped by his assertiveness in other areas as well.

-- Jim O?Sullivan
@JOSullivanNatJo

NATIONAL JOURNAL?S PRIMARY REPORT

On and Off the Romney Bus, Tryouts for a Spot on the Ticket
[New York Times, 6/18/12] Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio have all campaigned with Romney, among others, offering the GOP presidential candidate to test out the chemistry with each of these potential running mates.

Will Text-Raising Become the Next Big Thing?
[National Journal, 6/18/12] About a decade ago, the Internet revolutionized political fundraising. Could text messages be poised to repeat the feat?

Obama Pleads for Voters? Patience
[The Hill, 6/18/12] President Obama is taking the same tack as former President George W. Bush, in that he's asking voters to give him a bit more time to enact all the change he promised in 2004. While that strategy worked in 2004, it's a gamble for Obama in a year marred by a weak economy.

Candidates Trade Misquoting Charges
[Associated Press, 6/18/12] How many of the attacks lobbed during stump speeches and campaign ads involve statements taken out of context? A great many, according to the AP, skewing the arguments of both sides even as they denounce such out-of-context attacks.

Romney Embraces Hill GOP
[Wall Street Journal, 6/17/12] On Sunday, Romney campaigned with House Speaker John Boehner and Sen. Rob Portman, and today he'll appear with Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, a series of guests that underscore Romney's commitment to the Republican Party in Congress.

Romney Knocks Obama?s Immigration Move but Struggles to Offer an Alternative Plan
[Washington Post, 6/17/12] Romney did call Obama's policy shift on immigration a "stopgap measure," arguing that the U.S. needs a "long-term" solution to the immigration problem, but he repeatedly dodged questions on whether he'd end the policy if he became president and has yet to offer his own alternative.

Bain Capital: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in a Muddle
[Politico, 6/18/12] The Obama campaign attacks Romney's record at Bain while Obama praises his success as a businessman; the Romney campaign touts Bain's job-creation numbers while Romney declines to offer details on how exactly he created jobs. It's a complicated campaign issue, but one that neither candidate is willing to relinquish just yet, in part because each believes in the emotional power of their arguments surrounding Bain Capital.

Romney's Confounding Position on Carried Interest
[CNN Money, 6/18/12] Carried interest, a tax break that benefits private equity partners and Romney himself, is a controversial topic, as critics say it's a loophole that needs to be closed to raise revenues for the government. Romney has defended it, but his campaign has indicated previously he may be open to getting rid of the tax break, and it's yet unclear which side of the fence Romney will end up on if elected president.

Is Wisconsin Ripe for a Romney Win?
[CBS News, 6/18/12] CBS' Leigh Ann Caldwell outlines three political heavy-hitters in Wisconsin that are backing Romney up this election season, and highlights the openings recent events -- like the bad-for-Democrats recall election -- have offered for Republicans that may put Wisconsin in Romney's pocket come November.

Ron Paul's Army May Have a Loud Voice at GOP Convention
[L.A. Times, 6/18/12] By working the rules of state and local party conventions to his benefit, Ron Paul is slowly amassing an array of supporters to speak for him at the Republican National Convention this summer, opening the door for Paul's libertarian-leaning ideology to play a role in crafting the party's platform.

Potential VP Pick Sen. Portman Still Unknown to Many in His Own State
[ABC News, 6/17/12] He has been called by many "boring," but perhaps that's because many don't know him -- even those in his own state, who voted him into office. In northeastern and central Ohio, locals couldn't identify Portman.

'Have You Beat Obama Yet?? Grandson Asks Romney
[ABC, 6/17/12] Romney?s grandchildren have been getting an up-close look at the political process, but at least one ? 4-year-old Nate ? seems to have had enough of the long, drawn-out campaign.? In a Citizen Kane-esque moment he asked his grandfather ?Have you beat Barack Obama yet??

In Ohio, Earthy Boehner is a Contrast to Squeaky Clean Romney
[Washington Times, 6/17/12] On the third day of his bus tour through America, Romney got a boost from Speaker John Boehner, who said Obama and Democrats were obstructionists getting in the way of Republican legislation. Boehner ignored protestors who yelled ?Romney go home!?

Chris Christie: Call Me, Mitt
[Daily Beast, 6/18/12] Did the Jersey governor blow his White House chances? He talks to Peter J. Boyer about why he passed on running?and how Romney could talk him into being his running mate.

Tim Pawlenty: Romney?s Traveling Salesman
[National Review, 6/18/12] The one-time candidate gets high praise from Romneyworld:? ?Pawlenty basically does whatever the campaign requests, no questions asked,? says one Romney staffer. ?That?s pretty rare in presidential politics, especially among politicians of his standing.?

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